Predicting the Future

I received a link to this interview with Jill Davis, Founder and President of Scrapbook.com

Where do you think scrapbooking is headed next year?
First, I think it will continue to become simpler. Second, seasoned scrapbookers won’t be experimenting as much with new products and techniques. Every scrapbooker has a personal style that, when discovered, becomes their niche. They’ll still be interested in new techniques, but they’ll focus on their niche and get more albums completed. What I call experimental, or cutting-edge, scrapbookers will still be interested in the new and exotic techniques.

It got me thinking about the stitching industry. I'm interested that she distinguishes between newbies and "seasoned" scrappers: newbies experiment and old-hands stick with their niche. I think it's true to some degree. We old-timers have managed to collect so much stash that we start to look at the whole idea of craft differently, I think. When you're new, it's all such a wonder. You want to try so much! Of course the collecting doesn't start until that first time you get burned. You see something you want but don't buy it because you've already spent so much or because you've got so many other projects on the burner, then search as you might, you can't find that pattern ever again. For a while you take fewer risks and the next thing you know, you've got hundreds of kits and charts and magazines.

I remember when I first started going to Spirit of Cross-Stitch, and silk ribbon embroidery got steaming hot one year. Now, less than ten years later SRE is nowhere. It's interesting because SRE was so easy to do, but so frou frou. Very Victorian. Eventually Chinese prisoners were stitching it on to our clothes. Who needed to spend the time (although it is faster than cross-stitch) when you could get a t-shirt with SRE for the price of a regular t-shirt? Although I think you'd be hard pressed to find SRE on clothes for sale these days. Do you think, perhaps, that it was the trend toward SRE on clothing that caused it's death? We all know how fickle the clothiers are.

And what's new? These days, it's Russian punchneedle. I do, however, remember the one punchneedle woman at the SXS shows nearly ten years ago trying to get people interested. At last! Her persistance has paid off. Again, it's quicker than xs. But, besides putting it on kids clothes, I cannot for the life of me think what to do with the piece I've done. Is this another needlework trend too closely tied to the garment industry?

So what's the next big thing?